Forecasting

2 articles
  • nassim silver_HERO

    Nassim Taleb’s Case Against Nate Silver Is Bad Math

    Nassim Nicholas Taleb has overplayed his hand this time and is left looking, well, klueless.Photograph by Salzburg Global Seminar / Flickr Nautilus Members enjoy an ad-free experience. Log in or Join now . Since the midterm elections, a feud has been raging on Twitter between Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, hedge-fund-manager-turned-mathematical-philosopher […]
  • conformity

    The Death of Hundreds Is Just a Statistic—But It Doesn’t Have to Be

    Imagine that tomorrow I were to show you a newspaper article describing a deadly wildfire. Do you think you’d be more upset upon reading that 10,000 people died than if you read that five people died? Nautilus Members enjoy an ad-free experience. Log in or Join now . This scenario makes people engage in affective […]