Aubrey Clayton
The “Hot Hand” Is Not a Myth
With the NBA Finals upon us, a mathematician revisits the famous paper that claims a player’s hot streak is an illusion.
The Problem with a New Study on Mentorship in Science
Arguably the best prescription to improve the situation facing women in science is for there to be more women in science.Oleg Golovnev / Shutterstock The increasing visibility of women in leadership roles is one of the few success stories in the struggle for equality in science. But a new study, which connects how often scientists’ […]
How Eugenics Shaped Statistics
Exposing the damned lies of three science pioneers.
To Beat COVID-19, Think Like a Fighter Pilot
How an aerial-combat theory can help fight the outbreak.
How to Predict Extreme Weather
Climate science is forging a more perfect union between humans and machines.
The Flawed Reasoning Behind the Replication Crisis
It’s time to change the way uncertainty is quantified.
Nassim Taleb’s Case Against Nate Silver Is Bad Math
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has overplayed his hand this time and is left looking, well, klueless.Photograph by Salzburg Global Seminar / Flickr Since the midterm elections, a feud has been raging on Twitter between Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, hedge-fund-manager-turned-mathematical-philosopher and author of The Black Swan. It began, late last year, with […]
How to Improve Political Forecasts
With a better understanding of probability, we won’t be misled.