Aubrey Clayton

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    The “Hot Hand” Is Not a Myth

    With the NBA Finals upon us, a mathematician revisits the famous paper that claims a player’s hot streak is an illusion.

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    The Problem with a New Study on Mentorship in Science

    Arguably the best prescription to improve the situation facing women in science is for there to be more women in science.Oleg Golovnev / Shutterstock The increasing visibility of women in leadership roles is one of the few success stories in the struggle for equality in science. But a new study, which connects how often scientists’ […]

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    How Eugenics Shaped Statistics

    Exposing the damned lies of three science pioneers.

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    To Beat COVID-19, Think Like a Fighter Pilot

    How an aerial-combat theory can help fight the outbreak.

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    How to Predict Extreme Weather

    Climate science is forging a more perfect union between humans and machines.

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    The Flawed Reasoning Behind the Replication Crisis

    It’s time to change the way uncertainty is quantified.

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    Nassim Taleb’s Case Against Nate Silver Is Bad Math

    Nassim Nicholas Taleb has overplayed his hand this time and is left looking, well, klueless.Photograph by Salzburg Global Seminar / Flickr Since the midterm elections, a feud has been raging on Twitter between Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, hedge-fund-manager-turned-mathematical-philosopher and author of The Black Swan. It began, late last year, with […]

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    How to Improve Political Forecasts

    With a better understanding of probability, we won’t be misled.